Weekend Entertainment Flashback
How many pinheads can stand on the head of a pin?
We analyze this question in our run-down of Doug Feith's book tour ...
--Josh Marshall
Who's Disenfranchised?
As both campaigns prepare to make their case for what to do about Florida and Michigan before the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC), I wanted to focus your attention on an issue that has gotten too little attention.
The Clinton campaign argues that if the delegates from these non-sanctioned primaries are not seated hundreds of thousand of voters in Florida and Michigan will be disenfranchised.
The other side argues that it is wrong to change the rules of the nomination process after the fact in order to advantage one candidate over another. The latter is an argument I agree with -- but there's no question it lacks the emotive impact of the disenfranchisement argument.
What doesn't get mentioned, however, is this: it was widely reported and understood in both Florida and Michigan that the results of these primaries would not be counted. And based on that knowledge, large numbers of voters in both states simply didn't participate.
If the DNC were now to turn around and decide to make these contests count after all, these non-participating voters would be disenfranchised no less than the people who did turn out would be if the DNC sticks to the rules and doesn't seat any of the delegates. The simple fact is that large numbers of people, acting on accurate knowledge and in good faith, decided that there wasn't a real primary being held in their state on the day in question and on that basis decided not to participate.
Now, the question is, How can we really know how many people didn't show up because they were told it wasn't a real election? There is of course no way to arrive at a direct answer, at least no practical one. But this post by Eric Kleefeld, which builds on a statistical analysis by Gregory P. Nini and Glenn Hurowitz, makes a very strong case that as many as one million voters in Florida and probably more than a half million voters in Michigan did not vote who otherwise would have if they had not believed that the results would not be counted. Take a look.
--Josh Marshall
The Calendar
Just to update your general election scorecards, be sure to note that the administration will be trying to have military tribunals for al Qaeda conspirators timed to run during the final weeks before the November election.
--Josh Marshall
Revising and Extending My Remarks
Two weeks ago, in my farewell post to TPMmuckraker alum Paul Kiel, I noted his critical and too-little-credited role in our coverage of the US Attorney firing scandal. But while that is entirely accurate, I failed to note an important part of the story.
By the time the story really broke open it was just me and Paul working the story at TPM since Justin Rood had already moved on to his current job at ABC's The Blotter. But key work on the story happened before a lot of the public and the rest of the news media really began to take notice -- particularly the initial work of compiling the initial list of seven US Attorneys who we then believed (and now know) had been fired. This was in some ways the Rosetta Stone from which the rest of the story unfolded over the spring and summer of 2007. And Justin was every bit a part of that reporting.
This is of course sort of inside baseball. It doesn't change the merits or implications of the story. But it's one that we're proud of here at TPM and one that's gotten a lot of attention. So I wanted to clarify this point and set the record straight.
--Josh Marshall
What Happened Indeed
If you're just whiling away your Friday afternoon at the office, staring at the clock, then you might enjoy our highlight reel of Scott McClellan's greatest hits as White House press secretary:
--David Kurtz
Details, Details ...
This has occurred to me too. In his statement today John McCain said that "we have drawn down to pre-surge levels." But of course that that's not remotely accurate. We won't even be fully down to pre-surge levels this summer. And now in response to criticism on this point, the McCain camp is now attacking the Obama campaign and any press outlet that picks this up for "nit-pick[ing] the tense of the verb."
Now, I think it's true that gotchas over verb tense can often be a bit much. I know from experience that you can say all sorts of funny stuff while speaking extemporaneously. But, c'mon. This is McCain's signature issue. It's almost the totality of his campaign -- Iraq and the purported success of the surge.
This is hardly nit-picking.
--Josh Marshall
It's All Charles Schumer's Fault
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) blames Chuck Schumer and "New York politics" for his re-election woes:
--David Kurtz
Not Staying In Vegas
It's looking more and more like Gov. (but for how long) Gibbons (R) of Nevada may be in for a lot 
of trouble.
Gibbons, you'll remember, gave up his House seat in 2006 just ahead of a federal investigation into whether he "accepted unreported gifts or payments" from a defense contractor who got secret contracts with Gibbons assistance. He gave up his seat to run for governor. But just to up the scandal ante at home, not long before election day, he followed a cocktail waitress, Chrissy Mazzeo, back to a parking garage where, she alleged, he attempted to sexually assault her.
The whole subject became drawn out and messy and picked up several plot twists right out of an Elmore Leonard novel. To make a long story short, Gibbons and Co. eventually made the whole thing go away -- but not without plenty of signs and not a little evidence that local pols, law enforcement and wealthy pals went to heroic and goonish efforts to help their friend beat the rap. For some of the gory and clownish details see Justin Rood's coverage of the 
story from late 2006 in our TPMmuckraker Gibbons' file.
But now it looks like Gibbons' chickens, and more importantly his philandering, might be coming home to roost. Gibbons is now involved in a nasty and protracted divorce battle with his wife -- one that escalated dramatically after he took the bold step of trying to have his estranged wife evicted from governor's mansion. Dawn Gibbons has hired attorney Charles Dunlap, who seems to have a reputation for liking to fight his cases in the press. And Dunlap is pushing to unseal the court documents relating to the divorce.
But the real news comes in a post today from Justin Rood (now of ABCNews.com's The Blotter). Dawn Gibbons is now more or less openly threatening to air Gibbons' dirty laundry on all his sundry scandals. According to Rood, in a recent filing Dawn Gibbons claimed the public was "misled" about the Mazzeo incident by Gibbons' "handlers, spinmeisters and staff." And her lawyer, Dunlap, is hinting that she might have stories to tell about the earmarks and bribery investigation too.
It's looking like a lot of muck is going to be coming down the pike in Nevada. And luckily, as of Monday we'll again be fully staffed at TPMmuckraker. So we'll be ready.
--Josh Marshall
Not That There's Anything Wrong With That
Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) keeps trying to link his Democratic opponent, former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, to San Francisco. Hmmm. I wonder why?
He's got another ad out, almost as hippie groovy as the first one he ran.
In case you missed it, we've put together a whacky highlight reel of the best and worst congressional TV ads to run so far this year.
--David Kurtz
ONOMATOPOEIA
From Roll Call (sub.req.): Hastert to Join Dickstein Shapiro.
(ed.note: In case, you're wondering, it's a law/lobbying firm.)
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons is out to prove that what happens in Vegas doesn't stay in Vegas.
--David Kurtz
Going, Going ...
Folks, I think we've got a live one on the line out in Colorado.
You've already met GOP senate candidate, and former representative, Bob Schaffer. His main claim to fame in this cycle has been stumbling into fulsome praise for the Mariana Islands sweatshop program that revealed his ties to Jack Abramoff, Jack's island sweatshop junkets and generally carrying Jack's clients' water up on Capitol Hill.
Now Schaffer's got another 
great story cooking that's sure to help his flagging senate campaign.
The nuts and bolts of it basically go like this. A Denver businessman named Bill Orr lobbies Congress and gets a $3.6 million earmark to help develop some new kind of non-polluting fuel. And he sets up the National Alternative Fuels Foundation to get your tax dollars for the earmark. The only problem was that "science" Orr used to get the EPA to fork over $2 million of the $3.6 million of earmarked money was apparently bogus. And as will happen in such cases, it's gotten him indicted by the Feds for multiple counts of defrauding the government.
Now, Schaffer was still in the House when Orr got his prized earmark. And then not long after he gave up his House seat, he signed on as a "director" at Orr's highly-credible-sounding National Alternative Fuels Foundation. In other words, Schaffer was a board member of Orr's outfit/racket during at least part of the time Orr was allegedly bilking the government out of its money.
Part of Schaffer's explanation for this awkward confluence of events, as relayed by his campaign manager Dick Wadhams, is that he got involved with Orr on the recommendation of one of Schaffer's Colorado associates-cum-handlers Scott Shires. But that may not be a great association either since back in 2006 Shires copped a plea over his role in the scam and agreed to testify against Orr.
The jury in the case had been deliberating. But just this afternoon they returned their verdict: guilty on 22 counts. So the outlook is not looking good for Orr. But what about Schaffer?
Schaffer has been accused of no crime, though he may be called to testify at Orr's sentencing. But what about those earmarks? Democrats in Colorado are asking whether Schaffer was the one who got Orr the $3.6 million earmark. And while the case that he did is highly circumstantial and fairly thin at that, no one's stepping forward to say who got Orr the money and Schaffer's campaign is rather conspicuously not answering any questions about the earmarks origins.
One way or another, Schaffer is now at best unwittingly tied to an organization that was based in large part on criminal acts. So that can't be any more helpful than Schaffer's ties to Jack Abramoff.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Hey, Wha' Hoppened?
In his bombshell new book, What Happened, former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan lashes out at his old employer in a massive Bush-administration-wide bus-throwing-under. Better late than never? To assist Mr. McClellan with his big media sales push, we thought we might go back and revisit some of the lowlights from back when what he said actually mattered ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
Late Update: A huge thanks to all the readers/viewers who e-mailed in with their favorite Scottie memories. We hope you find yours in there.
--Ben Craw
Still Have Don Young to Kick Around
Rep. Don Young (R-AK) today officially filed to run for reelection to a 19th term as Alaska's sole representative in the House. Here's a portion of the statement from Young that his campaign released:
"I know I may come off as gruff sometimes, and some think that my methods in Congress are a bit aggressive. But guess what? I'm effective, and my colleagues in Congress on both sides of the aisle always have acknowledged that. We are a huge state with only one representative in the House. The only way anything can get done for our state is to stand up and fight for it, and I've done that well for you all throughout my career."We live in a world where liberals from San Francisco are running Congress and their greatest wish is to lock up Alaska and turn it into a national park. Well, that's not happening on my watch, not now and not ever. I have fought long and hard over my career for a state I love and a state I proudly call home. With your support, I look forward to continue standing up for Alaska!"
--David Kurtz
It's Come to This
What do Michelle Malkin, Rachael Ray, Dunkin Donuts, and terrorism have in common?
--David Kurtz
Yellin Revises and Extends Remarks
Jessica Yellin has a post up at a CNN blog clarifying her remarks last night about being pressured by her bosses at the time to stay positive in her reporting during the run-up to the Iraq War:
First, this involved my time on MSNBC where I worked during the lead up to war. I worked as a segment producer, overnight anchor, field reporter, and briefly covered the White House, the Pentagon, and general Washington stories.Also, let me say: No, senior corporate leadership never asked me to take out a line in a script or re-write an anchor intro. I did not mean to leave the impression that corporate executives were interfering in my daily work; my interaction was with senior producers. What was clear to me is that many people running the broadcasts wanted coverage that was consistent with the patriotic fever in the country at the time. It was clear to me they wanted their coverage to reflect the mood of the country.
--David Kurtz
What Will It Take For Obama To Win?
TPM Election Central takes a first run at the electoral math.
--David Kurtz
Mississippi Burning?
The latest polling in the Mississippi Senate race has incumbent (albeit appointed) Sen. Roger Wicker (R) now trailing former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D), 47-46. This is the race to complete the term of the retired Trent Lott.
[ed. note: This post originally had the spread as 44-40, which is actually the number from the latest poll on Obama v. McCain in Michigan, where McCain is leading. So many polls. Sorry for the confusion.]
--David Kurtz
No Hoarding
These Obama-hoarding-superdelegates stories keep coming up, and we keep knocking them down. So here we go again. As Greg Sargent explains:
Once either campaign has got an individual super-del privately locked down, it rushes that super-del out the door and makes it public as quick as possible, in order to make it official. The campaigns don't privately hoard super-dels, because to do so would risk losing them.
--David Kurtz
Scottie on the Loose!
Scott McClellan's began his book tour this morning. Here's a sampling of his interview on the Today show:
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
A look at how Phil Gramm, McCain's top economics adviser and possible future Treasury Secretary, came to earn the sobriquet "Foreclosure Phil."
--David Kurtz
I Raise My Hand
In response to the ridiculous Seth Leibsohn challenge yesterday, I raise my hand and offer evidence (Exhibit No. __ -- oh, who can keep count at this point?) that the press was soft on the Bush Administration in the run-up to the Iraq War.
Here's Jessica Yellin of CNN (but formerly of ABC News*, during the time period in question) talking last night about the pressure she was under from network news execs when she was covering the Bush White House back then (via Michael Calderone at The Politico):
Late Update: The three broadcast network anchors were on the Today show this yesterday morning and Matt Lauer got them to ruminating on the coverage of the Iraq War, especially before the invasion. Only Katie Couric whole-heartedly embraced the notion that the media had been cowed by Bush's popularity and the post-9/11 patriotic fervor:
*Late Update: Yellsin was apparently referring to another of her previous employers, MSNBC.
Later Update: Yellin clarifies her remarks.
--David Kurtz
If you want to see my talk this evening in Palo Alto, the details are here. Free and open to the public.
--Josh Marshall
The Seth Leibsohn Challenge
The right is in a bit of a snit today over Scott McClellan's book. Take this post at The Corner, by Seth Leibsohn, responding to McClellan's charges that the White House undertook a "propaganda campaign" to tout the Iraq War and that the press was too soft on Bush during that period:
The evidence I've seen does in fact show that the administration had different justifications for the liberation of Iraq -- but we saw them plainly and in the open before as well as after the invasion. The president, the secretary of state, the VP, and many others gave lots of reasons for the invasion of Iraq. There were international legal cases, there were public policy cases, there were national security cases all to be made. And they were. The idea that the press didn't do its job and was too soft on the president -- as McClellan writes -- is, frankly, laughable. Raise your hand if you have any evidence that the press was too soft on the administration.
Raise your hand indeed.
[Thanks to TPM Reader JU for the link.]
--David Kurtz
TPM Is Hiring
TPM Media is announcing a job opening for a news editor working in our New York City office. The news editor has primary responsibility for running and updating the news section on the front page of Talking Points Memo (TPM), working closely with the site's managing editor. Key responsibilities include staying on top of breaking news, finding current news items, working with our reporters to find which TPM stories to feature, writing headlines and story descriptions, as well as selecting news photos and video to complement our front page news coverage. Applicants must be inveterate news and politics junkies and be able to work in a fast paced news environment every day. Their job is to make sure our front page is always on top of everything and putting everything in front of our readers' eyes from a witty, TPM perspective.
If you're interested please send a resume, two clips and a letter describing your interest and qualifications for the job to talk (at) talkingpointsmemo.com with the subject line "TPM News Editor Job".
This is a full-time, entry-level position, with health care. Salary is negotiable.
--Josh Marshall
We Need Your Help
In honor of Scott McClellan's new book, we thought we'd do a highlight reel of his time as White House press secretary for tomorrow's episode of TPMtv.
So what are you favorite Scottie moments captured on camera? So much to choose from: Iraq, Katrina, Plame, among others. What jumps out to you? What have we forgotten?
Send us an email at the "Send Comments and News Tips" address at the top of the page, with the subject line: "Scottie Reel." Please include as much of a description as possible, especially the approximate date, so we can track down the video. Thanks in advance.
--David Kurtz
Disgruntled?
Here's the statement released by White House spokesperson Dana Perino on her predecessor's new book:
Scott, we now know, is disgruntled about his experience at the White House. For those of us who fully supported him, before, during and after he was press secretary, we are puzzled. It is sad - this is not the Scott we knew.The book, as reported by the press, has been described to the President.
I do not expect a comment from him on it - he has more pressing matters
than to spend time commenting on books by former staffers.
Last I checked, about 77 percent of Americans are "disgruntled."
--David Kurtz
Bucket of Warm Spit
Maybe a little premature (then again, maybe not), but we've set up a discussion thread at TPMCafe on who the Democratic VP nominee should be.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Down-Ballot AdStravaganza!
AdStravaganza fans, rejoice! If you liked our presidential AdStravaganzas then you'll love our down-ballot congressional campaign AdStravaganza. Many more candidates, much less quality!
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--Ben Craw
Today's Must Read
Can we hear more about that meeting between Karl Rove and Scooter Libby during the heat of the Plame investigation that Scott McClellan describes in his new tell-all?
--David Kurtz
Great Company He Keeps
On the McCain/Gramm/UBS front (noted in yesterday evenings posts), it seems that not only is Sen. McCain's top economics advisor, fmr Sen. Gramm, lobby and work for UBS, but according to today's Financial Times the company is advising members of its private banking team not to step foot in the United States in order to avoid indictment.
(ed.note: In cases like this, I want to make a distinction between the particulars of the legal troubles UBS may or may not be in and the political implications for Sen. McCain. Anything tied to a big international banking concern is necessarily highly complex. And we're digging in to try to find you more on that. But as a political matter, for McCain, having your top economics advisor be the vice chairman and (until recently) lobbyist for a company telling a class of its employees to get out of the country for fear of being indicted is simply not a good thing. As I said, we're digging in on this story. But for the moment, I would caution readers to keep this distinction in mind.)
--Josh Marshall
Big Trouble?
Below I noted MSNBC's story tonight about how fmr. Sen. Phil Gramm (McCain's economics advisor) was advising him on his subprime mortgage bailout policy while Gramm was also a registered lobbyist for the Swiss bank UBS.
Now, it's clear from the report that UBS had some exposure on the subprime front. But I wasn't aware of the true extent of it. TPM Reader KB sends in articles Businessweek and Forbes that show just how big a player UBS was. Forbes says that UBS is among the banks worst hit by the global credit crisis, particularly in their direct exposure to the US subprime market. According to Forbes, UBS has some $37 billion in write-downs on assets tied to bad US mortgages. In other words, the bank's very life appears to be on the line in how the US government chooses to handle the matter.
As MSNBC reported, UBS deregistered Gramm as a lobbyist for the company on April 18th, though he continues to serve as a vice chairman of the bank. But that was fully a month after McCain's speech outlining his own approach to the crisis.
Many of the lobbying connections the press has dug up on McCain have been embarassing. But I'm not sure any have really had teeth until this one. After all, how much does the average voter care that Charlie Black represented a lot of foreign dictators? A stench, yes? But finding out that McCain had a major subprime lender bank lobbyist whispering in his ear when McCain told the public that it was basically tough luck if they lost their houses?
(ed.note: Let me clarify one point. UBS was not a bank lending people money for home loans. Their very high level of exposure came from buying paper instruments backed by iffy mortgages. The way this works is that lender company X lends a bunch of people money to buy homes. Then company X packages all that together and sells it to a company like UBS -- which bought quite a lot. There are many more levels of complexity, as I'm sure our banking industry readers will point out. But this is the basic point -- they are heavily exposed to the fallout from the subprime crisis without having been a first order lender themselves.)
--Josh Marshall
Can't Make This Stuff Up
For months, John McCain has been bragging on the fact that he's got fmr. Sen. Phil Gramm as his key economics advisor. That's scary enough as it is, if you're familiar with Gramm's policy predilections and legislative history. But now it turns out that Gramm, who advised McCain on his mortgage relief policy and speech, was also a registered lobbyist for the Swiss bank UBS, which is obviously heavily concerned with the mortgage crisis. According to MSNBC, which has just broken the story, UBS only deregistered Gramm on April 18th of this year, which I'm pretty certain was after McCain rolled out the policy that Gramm had a hand in crafting.
--Josh Marshall
Deep Thought for the Day
If John Hagee is too big a whacko for John McCain, why is Joe Lieberman headlining Hagee's annual shindig in July?
--Josh Marshall
Sinking Ship
We had so much fun with Scott McClellan. And to think now he's turned around and written a scathing, tell-all Bush White House memoir.
Didn't see that coming.
--Josh Marshall
Hard Truths
Daniel Levy wonders if corruption-tainted Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is nevertheless going out on a high note.
--David Kurtz
Schaffer's Other Problem
Forget Jack Abramoff and parasailing in the Marina Islands. Colorado GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer has another problem on his hands.
The president of a foundation for which Schaffer served on the board of directors is currently on trial (the jury is deliberating) on criminal charges for defrauding the government out of some $2 million. The treasurer for the group, who ran some of Schaffer's earlier political campaigns, has already pleaded guilty.
As Andrew Tilghman explains at TPMmuckraker, the case arises from a earmark secured back in 2000 for the National Alternative Fuels Foundation, whose board Schaffer served on from October 2004 until March 2005, after he had left Congress. His tenure on the board overlapped with some of the alleged criminal conduct by the foundation executive director, Bill Orr.
Orr had a for-profit business seeking to develop alternative fuels, and he set up the nonprofit foundation to receive the earmarked funds. Although Schaffer was in Congress at the time, it's not clear at this point which member of Congress arranged the earmark.
Schaffer himself has not been accused of any wrongdoing. But he is on a witness list in the case, as is Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) and Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr, himself a former congressman.
--David Kurtz
Who Will Succeed Vito?
Republicans are having a hard time finding candidates to run for the seat being abandoned by Rep. Vito "Families Guy" Fossella (R-NY). That's what former congressman and Staten Island GOP heavyweight Guy Molinari tells TPM Election Central.
--David Kurtz
Carter Alumni Club
You know the cognitive dissonance you feel when someone you admire and respect turns out to be chummy with someone you're not particularly fond of? That's how I felt reading Hendrick Hertzberg's ode to Chris Matthews. Still, it's worth a read.
--David Kurtz
TPMCafe Book Club: Rick Perlstein
We have Rick Perlstein at the Book Club this week, with his new book, Nixonland.
In his opening post, Perlstein describes the reaction to his book from the right and how it reflects the obsession with the idea that liberals to this day are merely "condescending" toward conservatives and conservatism.
Late Update: Amanda Marcotte joins in the discussion, contemplating how to overcome what she calls the "spite vote."
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Stonewall Johnson
Stonewall Johnson was born on January 21, 1824 in Clarksburg, West Virginia. He went on to become one of the most revered Confederate generals of the American Civil War. Wait, that's Stonewall Jackson. Stonewall Johnson was born on March 21, 1951 in Washington D. C. and went on to become one of the most controversial and obstinate Administrators of the Environmental Protection Agency, whose testimony before Congress has given him the inside track for this year's Golden Duke Award for Outstanding Achievement in Corruption-based Chutzpah ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--Ben Craw
CNN Still At It
We caught a retired-general-cum-TV-analyst cultivated by the Pentagon as a "message force multiplier" back on the air on CNN last week. This time he was touting the Administration line on the threat posed by Iran. Take a look.
--David Kurtz
The Last Traffic Jam
You may have seen this already. Americans cut back on driving in March, compared to the previous March, more than in any single month since such record-keeping began in 1942. It was a 4.3 percent drop in miles driven, a reduction of 11 billion miles.
I was doing a little more reading on this and came across this piece from Time, circa 1947:
The average U.S. citizen completely ignores the regularity with which the automobile kills him, maims him, embroils him with the law and provides mobile shelter for rakes intent on seducing his daughters. He takes it into his garage as fondly as an Arab leading a prize mare into his tent. He woos it with Simoniz, Prestone, Ethyl and rich lubricants--and goes broke trading it in on something flashier an hour after he has made the last payment on the old one. ...By last week, this peculiar state of mind had not only sucked thousands of American oil wells dry, stripped the rubber groves of Malaya, produced the world's most inhuman industry and its most recalcitrant labor union, but had filled U.S. streets with so many automobiles that it was almost impossible to drive one. In some big cities, vast traffic jams never really got untangled from dawn to midnight; the bray of horns, the stink of exhaust fumes, and the crunch of crumpling metal eddied up from them as insistently as the vaporous roar of Niagara.
Except for the occasional dated turn of phrase, the perspective is remarkably contemporary.
--David Kurtz
Obama's Electoral Map
As TPM Election Central first reported a week ago, Obama is on a purple Western state campaign swing this week, targeting New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.
TPM Reader BC makes an interesting point:
I think there's a bit more than meets the eye to Obama's swing through New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada this week. Of course, he wants to start wooing swing states for the general election. But I suspect he began with these three because he also wants to start shifting the media narrative about where he needs to win in November to capture a majority of electoral votes.One of the subtle advantages Hillary has had in making her "I do better in the swing states" argument is that her potential path to electoral victory looks much more like the traditional Democratic map. Above all it hinges on Ohio and Florida, which have been seared into traumatized Democrats' minds as ground zero for narrow defeats (or stolen victories). The press, always eager for a simple, dramatic narrative, has happily indulged Clinton's emphasis on these states, and will likely continue to do so when the focus shifts to Obama vs. McCain.
Obama's challenge is that he has an equally legitimate path to victory, but it runs through states that neither the media nor the Democratic base readily conceive of as pivotal. Together, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada offer 19 electoral votes -- only one less than Ohio. Add in Iowa, where Obama also shows unusual strength, and you get up to 26 -- one less than Florida.
Obama can afford to lose one of those "traditional" swing states if he makes it up in these states where he seems to have unique appeal. But if the campaign press corps decides to go spend the next six months camped out in Ohio and Florida filing hand-wringing stories about his struggles with "white working class" voters or elderly Jews, he never gets to make that case, the narrative about his campaign's chances will be much more dour, and some of that pessimism may sink in with the electorate.
Campaign tours like this one -- not to mention last Tuesday's primary night victory speech in Iowa -- are a subtle way to start putting these "Obama swing states" on reporters' radar screens and prime them to tell a different electoral story.
If BC is right, then the Obama camp is aiming its meta-message at people like me. I look at the Obama electoral map and just scratch my head. Can a Dem really win the White House while losing Pennsylvania, Missouri and Florida? Or winning only one of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?
As SurveyUSA found in a state-by-state electoral college breakdown back in March, Obama could pull it off, at least in theory. But it's not a tried and true path to the Presidency for a Democrat. That doesn't mean it can't happen. But it is a high stakes gamble, the kind that looks brilliant if it works and, well, probably pretty idiotic if it doesn't. Not that Bill or Hillary would ever say I told you so.
Late Update: Dissent, from readers.
TPM Reader JE:
You badly misrepresent the Obama electoral map strategy. He's not visiting western purple states and ignoring Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Before this western state trip he went to Florida and had what, by all accounts, was a enormously successful set of events, impressing several audiences he supposedly will have trouble impressing. Obama isn't gambling anything, and he will run hard in Florida and Pennsylvania and Ohio. But he will not cede a number of other states that Democratic candidates haven't taken seriously in recent elections. His strategy is to increase the number of states that can reasonably be called competitive. By labeling this a "gamble," you miss the bigger point and play right into a silly MSM talking point.
TPM Reader SR:
David, I don't know why you're "scratching your head." The simple fact is that what you're calling "the tried and true path to the presidency for a Democrat" has never actually worked! Ever! Carter won in 76 by carrying the South. Johnson won in 64 by carrying everywhere. Kennedy? Well take at look at his map, it's like some alternate universe. http://www.presidentelect.org/e1960.html "The only time your "tried and true" path more or less worked was in '92 and '96 and, in both case, it only worked because of Ross Perot, the most successful third party candidate in history. Both times, Bill failed to win an electoral majority in many of the key states on the "tried and true path" by a wide margin. Obama's electoral map is not about brilliant or stupid. Its about how doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity, not insanity. (The definition of insanity is making up your own facts, or your own math, and insisting they're as good as anyone else's facts/math.)
Likewise, TPM Reader CN:
Would Obama's pursuit of electoral-college victory based on non-traditional swing states really be a "high-stakes gamble"? High stakes, sure; it's a presidential election so the stakes are always high. But I don't see the gamble: each state produces a known quantity of electoral votes, and I have heard nothing to suggest that voters in NM or CO are less persuadable than voters in FL and OH. If the polls show that Obama's clearest path to victory is through a "new" electoral map, wouldn't the real gamble be to ignore his unique strengths and try to win through the "traditional" map? Sounds like that meta-message to the press is needed. Remember that Obama also used a non-traditional path to victory in the primary: organize every state, relentlessly organize the caucus states, and prepare for the long haul. Hillary put all her money on the "traditional" path to the nomination, believing it was the only winning path. She was surprised, to say the least. Will McCain also discount Obama's strategy?
--David Kurtz
Birds of a Feather?
Joe Lieberman is the scheduled headliner for the Rev. John Hagee's 2008 Christians United For Israel "Washington-Israel Summit" this summer.
--David Kurtz
System Malfunction
Hillary's evolving rationales for which count most matters -- pledged delegates, superdelgates, popular vote -- shouldn't distract from the fact that the primary system is broken.
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
The New York Times offers an investigative report on border guard corruption along the U.S.-Mexican border -- replete with your standard Bush Administration misfeasance. Turns out dissolving the internal affairs unit at Customs and Border Protection didn't work out so well.
--David Kurtz
Bill, Bill, Bill . . .
Here's Bill over the weekend on the campaign stump, riffing about how no one has ever tried to run the also-ran candidates out of the Democratic race once there's a presumptive nominee, until this year, when it happened to Hillary:
And here's the NYT fact check on what really went down in 1992, for example, after Bill became the presumptive nominee.
To anyone who remembers past Democratic nomination contests, it will be no surprise that there is nothing unprecedented about the pressure on Hillary to get out of the race.
--David Kurtz
Couldn't Happen to a Nicer Guy
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) trails his Democratic opponent in the latest Rasmussen poll.
--David Kurtz
Memorial Day
As we take the day, whatever else we're doing, to honor those who've died in our country's service, let's also remember the tens of thousands of Americans now serving -- right this moment -- in Iraq and Afghanistan -- people who are at once at the center of our national debate and yet, increasingly, as people, invisible.
--Josh Marshall
Musgrove v. Wicker
You know things are tough for the GOP when even a Mississippi Senate seat is not necessarily a gimme.
--David Kurtz
Too Much Fun
Yesterday, we flagged the comments of Liz Trotta, a Fox News contributor, joking about wanting to off both Osama bin Laden and Barack Obama. A laugh a minute, you might say. Today she gave what I guess is called an 'apology.' Says Trotta, it was a "lame attempt at humor."
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The Pentagon inspector general and the GAO have launched investigations into the Rumsfeld-era use of TV talking head military analysts as "message force multipliers."
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: RFK Gaffe-termath
On a slow news weekend, the Sunday show pundits look at Sen. Clinton's comments from every angle ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--Josh Marshall
Speaking in the Bay Area
I speak from time to time in the New York Metro area. But seldom outside of it. But I know we have a lot of readers in the San Francisco Bay area. So I wanted to let you know that I'm going to be giving a Knight Lecture on the Stanford campus on Wednesday of this week (details her