Good Idea
From TPM Reader JS ...
I wish team Obama would drive the elitism point home by doing the math on how much of a tax break John and Cindy McCain would get from McCain's plan vs the avg American (at the US median household income). And then for good measure show what would happen with Obama's plan.This would keep the theme of McCain's elitism and Republican elitist economics in the press for a while longer.
Another reader continues the thought ...
It might be nice to use the McCains' income to model the tax cuts, but that would require their disclosing how much they make. To get a sense of the difference, though, one need look no further than the NYTimes Magazine piece this Sunday on Obama's economic policies:"McCain, by continuing the basic thrust of Bush's tax policies and adding a few new wrinkles, would cut taxes for the top 0.1 percent of earners -- those making an average of $9.1 million -- by another $190,000 a year, on top of the Bush reductions. Obama would raise taxes on this top 0.1 percent by an average of $800,000 a year.
It's hard not to look at that figure and be a little stunned. It would represent a huge tax increase on the wealthy families. But it's also worth putting the number in some context. The bulk of Obama's tax increases on the wealthy -- about $500,000 of that $800,000 -- would simply take away Bush's tax cuts. The remaining $300,000 wouldn't nearly
reverse their pretax income gains in recent years. Since the mid-1990s, their inflation-adjusted pretax income has roughly doubled."That's a good ballpark estimation. Obama would raise McCain's taxes by roughly $800,000; McCain would cut them by about $200,000. That's a million dollar spread. No wonder McCain is so hostile to Obama's economic agenda.
But here's what's really interesting. Obama's proposals would raise his own taxes by hundreds of thousands of dollars, in order to cut the taxes of people who are less fortunate than he is. McCain would cut his own taxes even further than they've already been reduced. And that's everything a voter needs to know about these two men.
Late Update: Our full staff doesn't work weekends. But I think the graphic we want here has John and Cindy on the right and the average American family on the left, with two bubbles next to each family -- one for the impact of each candidate's tax plan. Somehow graphically you also want to add in the middle class to rich threshold at $5 million annual income.
--Josh Marshall
Keep It Comin'
Biden: "Your kitchen table is like mine, you sit there at night after you put the kids to bed and you talk about what you need. That's not a worry John McCain has to worry about. He'll have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at."
--Josh Marshall
Obama Introduces Biden
The day's big event is underway in Springfield, Il. We have the full text of Obama's speech posted at Election Central.
Late Update: Biden sprinkled some good lines in his speech.
Later Update: Video of the afternoon's proceedings:
--David Kurtz
Hagel Weighs In
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) issued the following statement on the Biden selection:
"Joe Biden is the right partner for Barack Obama. His many years of distinguished service to America, his seasoned judgment and his vast experience in foreign policy and national security will match up well with the unique challenges of the 21st Century. An Obama-Biden ticket is a very impressive and strong team. Biden's selection is good news for Obama and America."
--David Kurtz
FROM THE ARCHIVES
The McCain campaign is already out with a new TV spot hitting Joe Biden with some 2005 footage of Biden saying he'd be honored to run for president with McCain.
Late Update: Our take on the choice: Biden pick has risks, but it also signals a vigorous debate with the GOP on foreign policy.
--Greg Sargent
AP: It's Biden
The AP is reporting that Joe Biden is the one.
CNN is carrying a similar report.
Earlier this evening, ABC reported that a Secret Service detail was on its way to Biden's Delaware home.
Late Update: It's official. The Obama campaign's email announcing the decision is here.
--David Kurtz
I Think It's Me
I can confirm that Sen. Obama has not called to tell me that I am not going to be his running mate. I can read the tea leaves as well as anyone, and I think this is pretty conclusive proof that I am not yet out of the running.
I've been nothing if not coy about my shadow campaign for veep. Instead of telling as many people as I could that I have no interest in being asked to run, I've turned the traditional campaign for No. 2 on its head and told no one that I have a very real interest in being asked. I bet Joe, Evan and Kathleen didn't see that one coming.
At first it seemed like a long shot, but as the week has dragged on and Obama still hasn't announced his choice, I realized that this leaves the door open. As long as he hasn't announced, or at least called in advance to let me down easy, I figure I'm still in the mix. And just think of the possibilities: Obama/Kurtz--OK for America.
I've gathered the children here at home and we're waiting for the call. I keep peeking out the front window to see if the news trucks are gathering or the traffic is slowing down to catch a glimpse. Nothing yet, but I heard exclusively through a friend of a friend's hairdresser that it's all but decided. Can't get any more solid a confirmation than that.
--David Kurtz
Out of Mao's Shadow
Philip Pan weighs in on China's transition to capitalism at TPMCafe, suggesting that the country would be better off if the changes were led by the communist party, which has shown exceptional resilience to violence and upheaval in its nearly 60-year old history.
Fresh back from Beijing, Jennifer 8. Lee notes that the Chinese pulled out all the stops for the Olympics: "Easy flowing traffic, lack of migrant workers (who are like the Mexicans of China), and happy shiny volunteers who speak English everywhere. Even the weather cleared up for a few days last week."
--David Kurtz
CIA to Suskind: You Don't Know Us At All
The CIA issues an official denial of the allegations in Ron Suskind's new book that the White House ordered then-Director George Tenet to forge documents intended to link al Qaeda to Saddam Hussein: "To assert, as Suskind does, that the White House would request such a document, and that the Agency would accept such a task, says something about him and nothing about us."
--David Kurtz
Poorly Chosen Surrogate?
Robin Leach comes to John McCain's defense on luxe multi-house lifestyle.
--Josh Marshall
Tire Swing No More?
Pundits and yakkers start rapping McCain for non-stop POW, POW, POW.
--Josh Marshall
Ripe for the Plucking
I get asked a lot about the relationship between old media and new media, on the editorial and publishing side. And my usual line is that I think the relationship is much more symbiotic and convergent than people often realize. But when folks ask what scrappy little outfits like TPM would do if the big papers with their cadres of reporters went under, I have to wonder, what would big papers like the Washington Post do if TPM went under and they didn't have our exclusives to steal and run as their own stories on A2 on the following day?
For today's example see Kate Klonick's Thursday exclusive at TPMMuckraker about the US Commission on Civil Rights hiring Bush administration minority voting suppression expert Hans von Spakovsky and the Post's citation/credit-free retread in today's paper.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Morning Roundup
All the veep speculation you could ever want -- and more -- in today's TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Swinging on the Tire
TPM Reader TP is shocked ... not shocked, shocked, but shocked ...
OK, I've been involved in politics in PA for a decade but I was still shocked by the media love-fest at McCain's Ranch. I knew things were different in DC but this is like finding out your sister in the big city who seems to date a lot is actually a streetwalker. In response I hereby coin the term "Swinging on the Tire" to describe a reporter who has gotten way too cozy with a politician and has had their supposed objectivity affected.Please feel free to use this term or even making it into an award like one of Sullivan's.
I think we are beginning to see some reporters start to question McCain's statements and perhaps more importantly, they are starting to question if the John McCain they knew and adored was the real John McCain. They've given him a pass on just about everything up until now but I think you will slowly start to see that change. Once the truth starts to come out, I think the polls will swing back to Obama.
--Josh Marshall
Lifestyles of the Rich And Mavericky
Before John and Cindy McCain bought the two luxury condos in downtown Phoenix and combined them into one mega-condo for $4.6 million they lived in this Phoenix mansion. They sold it in 2006. But now it's on the market again for a cool $12 million. And here's the real estate listing at Yahoo Real Estate, with pictures and virtual tour.
The blurb ...
Former home of Sen John & Cindy McCain. Situated on over 2.5 acres. Totally remodeled in Old World style complete w/7 bedrooms in main house & 6 bedrooms in guest houses. Hardwood & travertine floors throughout. Master suite has huge walk-in w/private cantera stone patio w/spa and fplc. Gourmet kitchen has travertine floors, granite counters, comercial SS apliances w/large catering room/butlers pantry off kitchen. 2 guest houses. His/her dressing cabana. Finest entertaining backyard in the Valley - 3 ramadas (2 w/full bar set-up), BBQ, play house, cantera stone decking, pavillion, spa and large lap/play pool. 7 car detached garage...
--Josh Marshall
Ya Brought It on Yourself!
About four years ago I described what I called the Republicans' 'bitch slap' theory of electoral politics. Stuff like the Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry and McCain's Celeb/P Diddy assault on Obama aren't really about the attacks themselves. In themselves, they're often too cartoonish to be believed in any literal sense. What they're about is smacking the other guy around and making him take it. There's no better way to demonstrate someone's lack of toughness or strength than to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves -- thus the rough slang I used above. That not only makes the other guy look weak. It also transforms him into an object of contempt, which together are politically fatal. It's this meta-message of weakness that resonates far beyond the literal claims. And it's this that Democrats so often seem to miss -- explaining the factual inaccuracies of the claims, demanding that the attacks stop, all the while reinforcing the intended message of the attacks in the first place.
You can even catch a hint of the mentality in the McCain camp's huffing and puffing Thursday afternoon. The new and somewhat improbable line from the McCain camp is that they've actually been doing their best to go easy on Obama, to hold back the stuff that would really make him suffer. But now that Obama's gone ahead and raised McCain's inability to remember how many houses, now he's really gonna get it with a super-mean Rezko ad and maybe even Reverend Wright. "He's opened the door to this," a McCain official told Marc Ambinder, in a campaign version of the wife-beater's "You brought this on yourself!" As if McCain and his Rove lieutenants paid much mind to closed doors.
In effect, the devastating Rezko ad McCain says it never wanted to have to run is pretty weak. Which is pretty much what you'd expect for an ad put together in three or four hours by a campaign shell-shocked by a media firestorm they couldn't put out by screaming POW, POW, POW.
What we'll see now is whether Obama keeps McCain on the run with a continuing line of attacks or whether they'll let up after this one reactive pick-up from McCain's mistake. The House? gaffe exposes two of McCain's biggest vulnerabilities -- 1) the contrast between his old soldier pseudo-mystique and the pampered life he's led for almost 40 years and 2) the age-related wobbliness which has his campaign aides keeping him largely off limits to the traveling press. These dovetail with his loose-cannon approach to critical foreign policy questions.
These issues -- particularly 2 and 3 -- are substantively critical issues. 1 is to the extent that it sheds light on McCain's general ignorance and indifference to bread-n-butter economic issues and his willingness to flip between progressive and Bushite tax policy over the course of a couple years. But the tempo of this election and the fall out from the 'celeb' attacks will be determined in large part not by factual particulars but by whether Obama can show that when someone hits him hard he hits back twice as hard. Not cowering, ignoring or complaining. This is about the score and not the libretto.
--Josh Marshall
Big Pimpin'
An interesting tidbit from the end of a piece in the Politico on McCain's 8 homes. (They've decided it's eight.) From 2006 to 2007, the McCain's budget for household staff went up roughly 50% from $184,000 to $273,000 ...
The McCains increased their budget for household employees from $184,000 in 2006 to $273,000 in 2007, according to John McCain's tax returns.The additional cash supports an "increase in the number of employees," the McCain aide told Politico. The aide did not answer a question about whether the growing staff stemmed from addition of new properties to the family's real estate portfolio.
--Josh Marshall
9 Keys?
This guy's got an idea ...
Late Update: This other guy's already put together a special McSame #7 House keychain you can buy for your very own.
Later Update: Now there's a whole set -- one for each house.
--Josh Marshall
A 527 group tied to the McCain campaign wanted to go up on the air with an ad tying Obama to the 9/11 attacks. But even Fox is apparently refusing to run the ad.
--Josh Marshall
McCain: They're Cindy's!!!
McCain's latest response: They're not my homes! They're Cindy's!
--Josh Marshall
The Company They Want To Keep
Another GOPer up for re-election touts his ties to Obama in a campaign TV ad. This time it's Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT), TPM Election Central reports.
--David Kurtz
An Even Bigger Story
The McCain memory/housing glut story is a lot of fun. And I suspect it will do McCain a lot of damage. But let's not forget that there's an even bigger story today in the presidential race -- at least in terms of substance and possibly politically too, at least over time. John McCain has staked his whole campaign on opposing Barack Obama's call for a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. His very support of the notion, to McCain, illustrates his naivete and unfitness for the job of commander-in-chief. And yet today, the US and Iraq have agreed on a "timetable", using that very word, for leaving Iraq. Reality, the Bush administration and the Iraqi government have jointly endorsed Obama's position and left McCain a relic. Once the fun of the house story settles down from a boil to a simmer, the Obama camp must pivot off this development.
--Josh Marshall
Liberals Too!
NYT squeezes off the headline of the day: "Talk of McCain's No. 2 Concerns Conservatives"
--Josh Marshall
McCain Blogette
I didn't know there was any footage of the day the McCains hosted the DC press corps at that barbecue at their Sedona estate. But it turns out that McCain's daughter, who blogs at McCain's website as the 'McCain Blogette' put up a Youtube video of all the fun. It even includes the special moment when the Politico reporters brought Cindy McCain flowers to celebrate the event. Another interesting detail, they also show the family who serve as caretakers of the estate when the McCains aren't in residence. Presumably they live in one of the six houses on the estate ...
Special thanks to TPM Reader MS for the catch.
And special bonus, the audio of McCain forgetting how many houses he owns ...
--Josh Marshall
TPMTV: Three Years After Katrina
Saturday will be the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's initial formation over the Bahamas. When she washed over Mississippi and Louisiana six days later, on Aug. 29, 2005, she breached critical levees that were supposed to protect New Orleans. Hundreds drowned.
I recently interviewed John Barry -- author of Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America and The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History -- a New Orleans resident who now serves on the Levee Board. We discussed the current situation in New Orleans three years on and the reasons the rest of the country bears some responsibility for New Orleans becoming so vulnerable to storms.
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.
--David Kurtz
McCain: I've Only Got Four!!!!
McCain spokesman Brian Rogers: "The reality is they have some investment properties and stuff. It's not as if he lives in ten houses. That's just not the case. The reality is they have four that actually could be considered houses they could use."
Notably, if you look at the dateline, the piece appears to have been filed from the McCain estate in Sedona.
--Josh Marshall
Sink the Brand
McClatchy was apparently getting tired of their reputation as one of the finest print-based news organizations in the United States. So they decided to run this headline: "Obama strikes some as a pompous elitist."
--Josh Marshall
The Sedona Estate Question
You start to see one of the reasons why there are so many different estimates of how many houses the McCain's own when you look closer at the Sedona multi-home estate.
On the one hand, the AP reports that "includes four single-family homes and is worth nearly $1.8 million." On the other hand, back in March McCain told CNN that he "built the first house on his property 24 years ago and now there are six houses on his lot."
Here you can see an aerial view of the estate, which is on from 15 to 20 acres of land, depending on the report. (Click on the image to see a larger picture.)
We're a little unclear if this covers the entire estate and which of the things there are the four or six houses. But if anyone can help us on that, that'd be great.
So one, four, six, hard to tell. Hard to remember. And that's just on the estate. Doesn't count the Phoenix condos, San Diego beach front houses, or McCain's pad outside DC.
--Josh Marshall
Obama on McCain's Houses
And Possible Veep candidate Tim Kaine earlier in the day ...
--Josh Marshall
Fact Check
I will not stand by and watch the Obama camp try to claim McCain owns seven homes when he owns at least ten.
--Josh Marshall
Unforgettable (But Already Sold!)
At first we thought this spread in Architectural Digest was about the ranch/estate in Sedona with the multiple homes. But it's actually the home in Phoenix, which I think isn't even the primary home. That's the condo in Phoenix, which you can see here.
Late Picture Update: We thought these pictures were from the Sedona estate, but they're from the Phoenix mansion ....
Hard to Keep Track Update: It now seems like the McCains stopped living in the Phoenix mansion in 2006 when they sold it. The place is now back on the market for more than $12 million and Inside Edition has this look at the place ...
Late Memory Hole Update: The McCain campaign actually had Youtube videos up on their site of a Fox News Greta van Susteren report on the McCain Manses. But they appear now to have removed them from Youtube.
--Josh Marshall
Homes on the Head of McCain's Pin
I've done some initial looking into the McCain house list question -- how many homes he owns, how swank they are, why he's not sure how many he owns, etc. And the question seems more interpretive than investigative. In other words, there appears to be a relatively straightforward list of the properties the McCain's own. The question is how to enumerate them in terms of homes, especially in cases where a single McCain estate contains several different 'houses'. Another complexity comes in the McCain's primary residence, the $4.7 million condo in Phoenix. In that case, McCain bought two separate condos (i.e., two homes) and combined them into one mega-home.
One group, Progressive Accountability, counts 10 homes. And for now we're treating that as the baseline enumeration.
Late Update: The Obama campaign now has an ad up hitting McCain's gaffe. Interestingly, in what might be a sign of the new politics, the Obama campaign decides to go with what I think is the lowest possible enumeration - a mere 7 houses. Probably this is from counting the multi-home estates as single homes. But I'm not sure.
Later Update: The house issue also puts in a new context McCain's suggestion that you're only 'rich' when you're making an annual income of $5 million.
Getting Up In John McCain Number of Houses Update: Here's the best list of McCain cribs I've seen so far.
Jake Piles on Update: Jake Piles On.
--Josh Marshall
The Shoe Drops
Rice and Iraqi counterpart agree on "timetable" for leaving Iraq.
(Hint to Obama campaign: might be another nice pivot.)
--Josh Marshall
Everybody's Got Problems
In these hard economic times, a lot of people have house problems. John McCain's is that he doesn't know how many he owns.
Late Update: Thinking about it, this might suggest a contest. Help John McCain remember how many homes he owns. I've heard estimates from 6 to 12, with an apparent consensus in the 8 to 10 range. But where are they? And can we get to one number? If you find articles about particular homes, can you send them in to me by email?
--Josh Marshall
Descent
A good summary of the danger, from Max Bergmann at DemocracyArsenal ...
The big concern with a McCain presidency - a concern which I am surprised has not been vocalized more fully - is that the U.S. will lurch from crisis to crisis, confrontation to confrontation, whether it be with Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. The danger is that McCain's pundit-like rhetoric will entrap the U.S. in descending spiral of foreign policy brinksmanship. Just think about the very likely scenario of McCain giving Iran/Russia a rhetorical ultimatum and Iran/Russia ignoring it. Now we are stuck - either we lose face by not following through on our threats or we follow through and go to war. We can't afford such a reckless approach after the last eight years. For the next eight we need a president not a pundit.
Read the whole post.
For anyone who had eyes to see, Georgia was a perfect illustration of this. He totally flew off the handle, ramping the situation up dramatically with his unstable rhetoric.
--Josh Marshall
Is It True?
Will the McCain as trigger-happy hothead work? I suggest a different calculus. Is it true? I would suggest that it definitely is, both in personal temperament and policy prescriptions. And I believe that is the better metric, both practically speaking and morally.
Morally, the case is pretty straightforward. McCain really is a hothead. Everyone seems to agree that's true on an interpersonal level. But I don't really care about that. I don't care who he swears at. But over his time in the senate and now as would-be president, he's shown a tendency always to jump to the most confrontational and military-based responses to foreign events, often to almost ridiculous levels. And I think because of that temperament, he's fallen in with and become a useful tool of the DC neoconservatives who view acting crazy and getting people killed as a matter of principle.
I've watched the Bush presidency very closely. I've watched McCain closely for the last decade or so. And I either know or know a decent amount about a lot of the people advising him on foreign policy. And in terms of the physical safety and future of my wife and two sons, let alone the country, I would much prefer four more years of the Bush presidency to a McCain presidency.
The pragmatic reasoning follows from the moral. People speak and argue much more coherently about things they believe in their bones, things that are true. And people with open minds are much more inclined to believe things that are ... well, true, rather than cooked up for maximum polling advantage. In any case, it's very difficult to know what will and won't 'work' in the abstract and in advance. Going with the truth is a more reliable guide.
--Josh Marshall
Tougher
If you want harder hitting stuff from Obama, you might like this new TV ad tying John McCain to Ralph Reed and Jack Abramoff:
But the ad is running in Atlanta only.
--David Kurtz
Will McCain-As-Hothead Meme Work?
In a nation where we like our action heroes (Eastwood, Stallone, Schwarzenegger) to shoot first and ask questions later will the Obama camp's attempt to portray McCain as "reckless" and "trigger happy" actually work to diminish support for McCain?
Thoughts?
--David Kurtz
Burner v. Reichert, Part III
Netroots fave Darcy Burner was clipped by Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) in Washington state's new and relatively unusual open primary yesterday by 3 points.
They'll face off again in November because they were the top two vote-getters in the primary and neither received a majority of the vote. But this has got to be a sobering development for Burner, who lost to Reichert by just 2 points in the 2006 general election and hopes to finish him off this time around with a better-financed campaign that includes support from the DCCC.
It's not over, and you can still see a path to a Burner win in the general, but this is a tough one.
Late Update: Under the peculiar Washington state system, even if a candidate gets a majority of the vote in the primary they still must face the second-place finisher in the general election (so long as the runner-up received at least 1% of the vote in the primary).
[Thanks to TPM Reader JD for the catch.]
--David Kurtz
Free Advice, Worth Every Penny
Don't ever demand someone stop attacking you. Doesn't work. Don't do it. Sounds weak. Sounds pathetic. And a lot else.
Look at John McCain attacking my patriotism. It's sad what he's become. He'll do anything to get elected. Attack my patriotism. Change all his positions. Get in bed with the same people he used to say were the worst thing in politics. He'll do anything to get elected ...
Or
Look at John McCain. He knows people are fed up with the politics he and George Bush support. So instead of saying what he's for all he can think of to do is silly stuff like attacking my patriotism.
I'm not a message person so I'm sure a real one could come up with much better. But the point is. Don't demand or beg or please or even ask. It's silly and weak and achieves nothing. McCain's weakness is that he's abandoned everything he always said he believed in, just to be president. Against Bush/Rove attacks? Now they run his campaign? Reform? Now he's for all of President Bush's economic policies. It's the mix of flip-flops and moral failures that made his one time admirer diagnose him with a "severe character defect." A lot of people can see McCain's moral and character problem. But it needs bringing to the surface. Obama should come at it soft and his surrogates hard. It has the deep virtue of being true. Whatever else, STOP BEGGING.
--Josh Marshall
Rudy, You Lost
Rudy was the McCain surrogate on a campaign conference call this afternoon, but he almost sounded like he thinks he won the nomination and gets to pick the VP nominee himself.
--David Kurtz
Sad News
As most of you have probably seen by now, Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), the first black congresswoman from Ohio, suffered an inoperable brain aneurysm last evening and is in grave condition in a Cleveland-area hospital.
The Cleveland Plain-Dealer and CNN began reporting about 30 minutes ago that Tubbs Jones had died -- which we noted in the news section to the right there -- but in a press conference just now at the hospital, a doctor made clear that she remains in critical condition.
A terrible situation made worse by the confusion.
--David Kurtz
Stevens Circus To Stay in DC
The federal judge in the trial of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) overruled the senator's request for a change of venue to Alaska, but did say that the the trial will be in recess on Fridays so that Stevens can travel from DC back home to campaign for re-election.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Tuff Talk
David Gregory authoritatively proclaimed on Meet the Press last Sunday that when it comes to addressing the crisis in Georgia, "nuance doesn't work for Democrats," and noted Obama's perceived weakness relative to the Bush administration's "very tough language against Russia." Far be it from us to question Gregory's word, but we figured we would take a look for ourselves at just how tough the administration talk against Russia has really been ...
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.
--Ben Craw
Another Warning Sign
Zogby's latest shows Obama trailing McCain nationally by 5 points but even more ominously is the first national poll to give McCain the upper hand on dealing with the economy, which the survey found was voters' No. 1 issue.
Late Update: A critique of the poll and Zogby's methods generally.
--David Kurtz
Trifecta
Bush, Cheney and Lieberman will all speak on the Monday night of the GOP convention.
--David Kurtz
A Thought I've Had Too
From TPM Reader JB ...
Although your Republican friend suggests going after McCain for the sand in the cross story, denying this claim is impossible and turns quickly into a he said - she said issue. A surrogate may question its validity, but I think that puts us in shrill Ann Coulter territory and will make some people wonder why we are picking on him for his most vulnerable period when he was a hero.That said, I think McCain's cross in the sand story should be used as a point of positive comparison to now. In fact, it can be used to neutralize his POW sainthood. Someone needs to compare working with the Rove proteges to working with the Vietnamese torturers. The construction can go like this: John McCain said that Karl Rove deserves a special place in hell for the false accusations against him in South Carolina. I think this place in hell also holds his Vietnamese torturers and, in fact, anyone who uses tortures. Well, John McCain is now working with Karl Rove's people to get elected. The very same people who slandered him. I guess he would work with anyone, maybe even his Vietnamese torturers to get elected. We should judge a man by the company he keeps when times are tough. Like John Mcain and the ones who should be in a special place in hell.
I've actually had a similar thought. But I came at it a bit differently. McCain is always talking about victory and never surrendering. Andrew Sullivan said a few days ago that McCain has a penchant for underdogs. But I see it a little differently. Bush and Rove gave McCain the biggest political lashing of his life. He was sullen for a while, tried to fight them. But after a while he could it wasn't going to be easy. So he decided to join up with them.
--Josh Marshall
Fibbin'
From a Republican pal ...
You didn't get this from me, but use it as you will. Is it just me -- as a Republican knowing how we've played this game before -- or should there be genuine puzzlement why Obama isn't unleashing Democratic veterans (Jim Webb, Jack Reed, John Kerry, BOB Kerrey perhaps, etc. Some Democratic generals, whatever) to go after McCain on this "cross in the dirt" stuff? I mean, if there was one issue tailor-made for "Swift-Boat" payback, I can't think of anything else.
It ain't bean bag.
--Josh Marshall
I'm still liking but not hearing this. From Chuck Schumer: "I would answer back hard. What do you mean [Obama's] not one of us? It's John McCain who wears $500 shoes, has six houses, and comes from one of the richest families in his state. It's Barack Obama who climbed up the hard way, and that's why he wants middle-class tax cuts and better schools for our kids."
A friend of mine just wrote in arguing, essentially, that the McCain character narrative is unstoppable. You can change the terms of the debate. But there's no way you're going to change people's minds about Mccain, warrior, tough guy, maverick, going to protect your family no matter what. My answer would be, with some people, especially a lot of them in DC but certainly elsewhere too, that's right. With others I'm not so sure. And that's why I really wish there was some independent group out there telling the full story of McCain's life prior to his POW captivity and especially after. $500 shoes. Thinks you're rich after your making $5 million a year. Has 9 or 10 houses.
It's not for everyone. But the guy's pampered. And he changes his beliefs every few years.
--Josh Marshall
Another View
TPM Reader MR disagrees ...
I think we'll look back on August as when Obama won the election. August was when John McCain had the chance to define Obama and so cement a negative view of him that he could never recover. Now his time is almost up, the conventions are about to begin and we get into the full swing of the campaign. And what did McCain get out of his month? The Gallup tracking poll barely budged; most polls show Obama still with a modest lead, only slightly less than where he started a month or so ago. Obama's negatives are up somewhat -- no surprise after the pummeling he took -- but hardly up to critical levels. Unlike with Kerry, no single message has stuck -- he's a flipflopper! No, he's a scary leftist! No he's an empty celebrity! With no single negative image, the effect is likely to diffuse over time, especially with a successful Democratic convention. I think Obama's played this just right so far. Yes, lots of folks are complaining he hasn't gone after McCain enough but it simply wouldn't have worked. McCain has not been the story -- Obama has been. Unfair, sure, but that's the way it is. Obama's the new guy in town and everyone is trying to figure him out. So instead of fecklessly launching attack after attack on McCain only to have them disappear into the ether, he sat back and played rope-a-dope waiting for his moment. Now his moment is coming. The VP choice, the convention, the post-Labor Day sharpening of people's attention, the debates and the full onslaught of ads, money, and organization. Can he blow it? Sure. He's new to this. He can make the wrong VP choice. He can give an empty, if soaring, acceptance speech (or it could rain!) Hillary and Bill (especially Bill) could add a sour taste to the convention and make that the story. He could fall short of expectations in the debate. But all (or most of those) are under his control. I would *so* rather be Obama heading toward November than McCain. It's his for the taking if he just executes it right.
--Josh Marshall
Readers Respond
From TPM Reader JT ...
Obama has a frustrating problem. He has arguably run one of the best branded websites and campaigns of any in American history. He's consistent on tone and graphic design. But that's where his branding advantage ends. While he has done an okay job at branding himself, he has failed dismally at branding John McCain.You mentioned several ways that Obama can improve his messaging, but I'm skeptical any of these will be effective. Your suggestions focus on Bush's policies, and by proxy McCain's. But the arguments are all intellectual appeals to reflect on policy points having very little to do with John McCain, the man. Obama needs to own the branding of John McCain, the man. That's why Karl Rove's assessment about Obama at the country club works. It's a prototypical branding schema from which the entire message of John McCain's campaign is based. It's simple, and it speaks to the heart, not the mind.
To that end, I think the essence of Obama's campaign needs to be "John McCain will do anything to get elected." He will exploit his time as a POW and make up stories about his military "experience." He will flip-flop on any given number of issues -- Afghanistan, immigration, torture, tax cuts, etc. He will use racist appeals and attack Obama's patriotism to get elected.
"McCain. The candidate who will say anything to get elected."
This is short. And it's easy to remember. And it counters McCain's own branding of himself as a Maverick.
I confess I don't know why this point hasn't been hit harder or hasn't caught on more even irrespective of the campaign. Because here you've got a guy who's literally abandoned everything he supposedly used to believe in, all to be president. There really is nothing he wouldn't do.
TPM Reader CD, meanwhile, is very downcast ...
Just read your latest blog post, and am afraid to admit that I feel the same way as you. The only thing that has given me comfort recently --and I'm not able to find the quote exactly, so I'm paraphrasing -- was Plouffe saying "people need to understand much of the electorate decides very late in the game. In other words, I'm not concerned with polls." That makes me think they're hedging their bets, biding their time, etc. until the convention. That's my hope.But my feeling is far less enthusiastic now. What's really bothered me has been McCain's celebrity ads, or rather, Obama's lack of vigilance in refuting the claims in these ads. The ads are working. How do I know? Because they're working on me. I'm a huge Obama supporter, and he's the first candidate I've given significant money to, and his lack of push back on the celebrity issue has planted the seed in my mind: "is he really so arrogant to think he doesn't need to refute these claims?" I'd like to see some conviction, some insult taken by Obama at these attacks. He is the outsider, he is the change candidate, and he does have more work to do to introduce himself to the voters.
Letting this celebrity-line-of-attack go so unchallenged, to me, is the worst way to go about doing that. He's letting McCain introduce Obama.However, when he has taken the opportunity to respond to attacks, specifically Corsi's book, his responses have been so long-winded that I myself get bored of them. There is no sound bite, no decisiveness, no energy to the responses. A 42 page response to the book? While I'm sure it was exhaustive, how do you expect news media to cover that?
Where is the quick fatal blow in 42 pages? Supreme Court decisions are shorter.Maybe it was the timing of his vacation. Hopefully he actually starts to saturate the country at/after the convention. But where is this money advantage? Where is this expert campaign that guided him through a rather monumental upset in the primaries? He coasted out the last remaining primary contests against Clinton, while she "found her
voice." It certainly feels, at least right now, that McCain picked up right where Clinton left off, and Obama is still coasting.I'm a big believer in Obama's message. I think Bush is a criminal. I think our nation is in a truly perilous state. But for the first time since his campaign started, I'm truly worried and disappointed by him. He looks outclassed, outgunned, and outspun.
I'm an average American, I would say, and I believe I want what most Americans want: a fighter. I don't like to see, nor do I think the country likes to see, someone who isn't up for a fight, and right now Obama just doesn't appear up for a fight. This doesn't just worry me in terms of the political race, it worries me in terms of his ability to actually be President. Me, a progressive mind if there ever was one. That I have this perception should scare the bejesus out of the Obama campaign, because if there's one thing I've learned, I am not unique in these matters.
But then again, I'm not the expert, and Obama and Co. have knocked it out of the park before, so I wait and see.
--Josh Marshall
Erosion
The new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows a tightening race as Obama's negatives rise and his positives fall.
--David Kurtz
Starting Gate
There's been a lot of chatter about the state of the race over the last week or two. Some fretting on the part of some Obama supporters; some McCain supporters thinking for the first time that he might have a shot at winning this thing. There's been some movement in the polls in McCain's favor in various key swing states and nationwide. But it's mainly a matter of cutting into Obama's lead.
Small shifts in polling numbers are very difficult to make sense of in August.
So I want to set that all aside and take stock of where the campaign seems to be in terms of each campaign's message. On this front, McCain's message is pretty clear and essentially twofold: 1) Obama is, in so many words, a frivolous phony, someone who really doesn't have any business running for president. 2) McCain is a strong leader who can defend the country. There are all sorts of sub- and secondary themes -- Obama's an outsider, questionably American, etc. But all the nitty gritty points are subservient to those two interlocking messages.
From Obama, honestly, I don't sense a really clear message. There are attacks on McCain, some of which are quite good. There are positive uplifting commercials. And there are ads/messages targeted to particular states -- like Yucca Mountain in Nevada and the DHL layoffs in Ohio. But it's hard for me to come up with a clear cut Obama message in way that it's pretty simple for me to do with McCain. Even the 'change' message, which is the basis of Obama's campaign, seems much more diffuse to me than it was during the primaries.
It's true that I'm not living in one of the key states -- so there's a lot of atmospherics that I'm not seeing that voters would see in Ohio or Michigan, for instance. But I do run this site, that follows politics pretty closely. So I feel like I shouldn't need to be following things more closely than I already am.
Now, this is a key time to take stock because it's really only with the conventions that the battle is joined. Obama's been on vacation for a week. So when we'll really get a sense of message is the show that each candidate puts on in his party convention and then the campaign they run through September and October.
Beating up on McCain is critical. But it's not a message in itself. And the Obama campaign needs to deepen people's trust in Obama. Not because of all the smears because an outsider running to overturn the status quo always faces trust issues. But, again, not a message. For my money, the essence of this campaign is -- Are you happy with the way the country's been run for the last 7.5 years. Has our foreign policy left us better off? Republican economic policy? You can go through all the different facets. But it's clear that the public overwhelmingly thinks the Bush presidency has been little short of a disaster. And do you want four more years of that? If that's the frame of the election, McCain will be crushed. People know they don't want four more years of Bush. McCain will be another four years of Bush. It's time for change, etc. That's the essence of the campaign. But the message, right now, seems very muddled.
I've misjudged and underestimated Obama at several points in this cycle. And sometimes the public mood leans so overwhelmingly in one direction -- that the electorate gets the message themselv